Keep Calm and Carry On?

In the lasts few days our nation has been gripped by an unquenchable madness. Nobody knows what is happening. Pandora's Box has been opened and its contents are being traded away in a fire sale. How has it come to this?

The British public have voted to leave the European Union. This decision, which has already had a disastrous effect on the economy, was made by an older, wealthier generation of voters who haven't got very long left to live, in direct contradiction with the will of their relatively penniless children and grandchildren, who will have to live with these consequences the longest.

The Prime Minister has resigned, while both the Home Secretary and the Chancellor of the Exchequer were not seen for 72 hours after the result was declared. George Osborne finally reared his head on Monday morning to make a reassuring statement before the markets opened, only for the markets to subsequently crash as investors panicked even further.

The pound has fallen to its lowest value against the dollar in 35 years. Approximately $2.08 trillion was wiped from the global markets in one day. Credit agency Moody's downgraded the UK's outlook from "stable" to "negative" while S&P said the UK would likely lose its AAA rating. So far on Monday, at the time of writing, the FTSE 100 has fallen by 2% and FTSE 250 has fallen by 4.5%.

David Cameron, who stepped down after leading a campaign he had hoped to narrowly win, will most likely be replaced with Boris Johnson, the former Mayor of London and the Prime Minister's old Etonian schoolmate, who led an opposition campaign he had hoped to narrowly lose, and who is subsequently trying to run the country from his newspaper column.

Boris Johnson, who won his campaign and signalled Britain's intent to leave the European Union, is having second thoughts over triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, presuming he becomes the next Prime Minister, while those who comprise the EU establishment want us to get out as soon as possible. Number 10 has announced the unit to lead Brexit issues will be led by Oliver Letwin, whose 'Controversies' section is as long as the 'Political Career' section of his Wikipedia page.

On what comes next, those leading the campaign have no Brexit plan, as they were never in a position to fulfil any pledges they made. The ruling Conservative party has no Brexit plan, as they were expecting those in Number 10 to have drafted any contingency. And Number 10 has no Brexit plan, as David Cameron was not expecting to lose what ultimately proved to be his last political gamble after he had won all of his previous ones.

"It sounds like I’m making that up" - @FaisalIslam was told the Leave campaign did not have a post #Brexit plan https://t.co/yAT1IOaG5v

— Sky News (@SkyNews) June 27, 2016

In the first meeting of his cabinet since the result was declared, the Pm told his colleagues "this government will not accept intolerance" in light of a sharp rise in the number of xenophobic and racially-motivated hate crimes across the country.

Meanwhile, a coup has been triggered within the Labour party. Its leader Jeremy Corbyn, who does not hold the confidence of his MPs, may yet retain the confidence of the party membership. While the shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Ben was sacked over the phone for expressing his lack of confidence in the leader and triggering said coup in the early hours of Sunday morning, the deputy party leader Tom Watson, it emerged, was on a bender in Glastonbury; a detail we have only gleaned from his latest Snapchat story. Corbyn allies accused would-be plotters of planning this ongoing coup on a "Snapchat group".

The new shadow defence secretary Clive Lewis was also at Glastonbury when he was appointed to his new role, and may be late for his first Defence Questions in parliament due to the traffic. His predecessor Maria Eagle resigned in a wave of mass resignations from the shadow cabinet, a walkout which yet continues, not to mention the dozens of MPs and party figures who are resigning from non-cabinet and relatively junior positions. The list of 37 resignations as of 2:00pm BST includes 18 shadow cabinet members, ten shadow ministers, and nine private parliamentary secretaries.

Jeremy Corbyn has refused to step down, and may yet be entitled to continue until a leadership challenge is triggered. But because the party rarely topples its own leaders in such a regicidal fashion, the exact rules as to whether Corbyn may have to regain 35 nominations to appear on the ballot paper are unclear, and may have to be determined by the National Executive Committee, of which Corbyn has a slight majority. There are also rumours that the majority of the PLP will follow a 'Libya model' of sorts and form a second shadow cabinet within the party led by an unofficial leader. One may feel this all needs to be sorted out before Prime Minister's Questions, which will take place on Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile our actual head of state, a woman 25 years past the retirement age, is constitutionally bound to keep shtum in times of political division by merit of a constitution we have yet to write down. She is taking a trip to Northern Ireland on Monday - a nation which may leave the UK along with Scotland in order to continue EU membership, which itself may not be possible.

Given this is only day four of Brexit Britain, what else could possibly go wrong?

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In other news: International tensions have cooled as it has emerged Israel and Turkey struck a deal to end the six-year rift over the Gaza flotilla killings, while Iraq has taken back control of Fallujah from Islamic State in a massive blow to the terrorist group's ambitions.

EU Referendum: The Brexit Blame Game - Who Will Take The Rap For A Leave Vote?

During Jeremy Corbyn's Sky News Q&A on Monday, arguably among his stronger performances since becoming Labour leader, audience members challenged him on immigration, the refugee crisis, and his 'damascene conversion'.

The most interesting question, however, came from Sky News' political editor Faisal Islam. He asked the Labour leader whether he would "take the blame" for Brexit. The speculative question rather stood out from the substantive issues being discussed, but hinted at a potential post-Brexit media narrative.

Of course, whatever happens on Thursday, it will have been by the will of the British people. Using the term 'fault' or 'blame' implies the people will have made the wrong choice. The fault, if any, will collectively be all of ours. That is how democracy works, after all.

But the 'status quo' option is undoubtedly favoured by whatever it is you may term the 'establishment'. Groups including the government, the majority of business, the majority of economists, the majority of trade unions and even all 20 clubs which make up the Barclay's Premier League are in favour of a Remain victory.

As post-Brexit anger and bitterness brews, agents in the media may then begin the process of apportioning blame as a convenient way of bashing their political opponents.

Bearing that in mind, who will be the likely players in this Brexit Blame Game?

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Jeremy Corbyn

There lives and breathes a rather large faction of Corbyn catastrophicists who fervently believe everything the Labour leader does, says, or even touches turns into a brown, mucky substance. But, on this, they may have a point.

The man who admitted his enthusiasm in this campaign has only been "seven or seven and a half" out of ten, and that he has "no great love for the European Union" has only made a handful of major set-piece speeches, and has allegedly done little to convince undecided and demotivated Labour supporters to turn out.

Notwithstanding the danger of emulating The Boy Who Cried Wolf, Corbyn's lacklustre role in this campaign will almost certainly attract scorn from many - particularly in the Labour Party - who will feel his heart wasn't in it, and that he didn't do enough.

Alan Johnson

Hopes were high for the Labour grandee and perpetual party leader-in-waiting, who took the reigns of the Labour In for Britain campaign in December. But over the course of the official referendum campaign his presence has been almost non-existent.

When researchers measured the frequency of media appearances during a four week period between May to June, the alleged leader of the Labour campaign was ranked 18th overall, with 14 appearances in what has been a very Conservative-dominated sphere.

But even from all the Labour figures in the top 20, Johnson was ranked 5th. He fell behind Harriet Harman (14th with 17 appearances), Gordon Brown (13th with 18 appearances), Gisela Stuart (11th with 20 appearances), and Jeremy Corbyn (7th with 52 appearances).

Labour Voters

Will Labour voters be motivated to turn out? It is a question many have been asking during this campaign. Generally, Labour voters are fairly united; only split 75/25 in favour of Remain while, for reference, Conservative voters are split 56/44 in favour of Leave.

But, come Friday, the 'lazy Labour' trope may resurface. One theory floating around is that the overwhelming Tory domination in the media, and the failure of the Labour party to make its position clear, will lead to a low Labour turnout, and a Leave victory. 

Young People 

Younger voters have gained a notorious reputation for developing a stubborn political apathy; with only 43% of 18-24 year-olds turning out to vote in the 2015 General Election compared with 78% of those aged 65+.

Meanwhile, data that has emerged during the referendum campaign shows that 18-24 year-olds are overwhelmingly in favour of remaining (69%), and voters aged 65+ are overwhelmingly in favour of leaving (62%). If the turnout by age group mirrors that from last year, which is incredibly likely, withdrawal from the EU could well be pinned on young people's apathy.

The Political Class

The Mayor of London only this week described the tone of the EU debate as "poisonous". In fact, I've written previously about how politicians are failing to cut through with the public and engage in this campaign.

Also read:

• EU Referendum: Neither Side In This Scrappy Debate Is Cutting Through
• EU Referendum: Young Voices Are Being Sidelined In This Campaign

A combination of hysterical economic claims based on dubious models, scaremongering about immigration, and personal in-fighting between party colleagues may lead to a climate that ultimately turns off members of the public and leads to a low turnout.

When asked who they trusted the least, people under the age of 30 answered "politicians" with a net -66 rating, while a recent survey of both Remain and Leave voters showed a general disdain for the opinion of "experts".

It could well be the case that after this referendum, our MPs, who overwhelmingly back Britain's continued membership of the EU by 459 to 150, use their summer break to take a long, hard at themselves in the mirror, and think about what they've done. Unlikely, yes, but stranger things than MPs taking responsibility have happened.

David Cameron 

The Prime Minister may ultimately have to resign in the event of a Brexit, and his opponents within Labour and the Conservative Party will be spoilt for choice if they wish to pin it on his back.

For example, the widely-accepted view is that he bungled his months'-long EU renegotiation, failing to return with the sufficient changes to convince his Eurosceptic back-benchers and undecided voters across the UK to follow his lead in this campaign.

There are smaller factors too, such as the government's voter registration reform which disproportionately disenfranchised young, and overwhelmingly more pro-European voters, as well as his staunch resistance to widening the voting age to 16- and 17-year-olds.

Blame may also arise, of course, from his decision to hold this referendum in the first place.

EU Referendum: David Cameron Has No Choice But To Reject Any Leave Vote

Assuming Britain votes to leave the European Union on June 23, the Prime Minister will be faced with a one of history's most gruelling dilemmas. 

Does he accept the will of the British people and take Britain out of Europe against all his instincts, or will he disregard the democratic mandate put before him, and save his country?

You would be forgiven for assuming the result - whether Remain or Leave - would be legally binding. But it isn't. In some form or another, the government will have to take the final decision as there is nothing in the legislation which says the result must be respected.

David Allen Green has written a good explainer on these legal complexities for the Financial Times. He writes:

What happens next in the event of a vote to leave is therefore a matter of politics not law. It will come down to what is politically expedient and practicable. The UK government could seek to ignore such a vote; to explain it away and characterise it in terms that it has no credibility or binding effect (low turnout may be such an excuse). Or they could say it is now a matter for parliament, and then endeavour to win the parliamentary vote. Or ministers could try to re-negotiate another deal and put that to another referendum. There is, after all, a tradition of EU member states repeating referendums on EU-related matters until voters eventually vote the “right” way.

In summary, the result of the referendum is not obligatory. What matters is whether - and when - the government invokes Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. This referendum is more of a glorified opinion poll than an out-and-out instruction.

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Which brings us back to David Cameron's dilemma: accept the will of the British people and plunge this country, as he sees it, into economic, social and political chaos, or risk his own reputation and legacy to save it.

Also read:

• Project Fear: Every EU referendum scare story in one place!

Assuming the Prime Minister and his government have been completely honest and straightforward with the public throughout this campaign, we now know that in the event Britain withdraws from the European Union the migrant camps based in Calais will move to Kent, the NHS will be starved of funding, households up and down the country will lose £4300 per year, Europe could be plunged into another World War, Islamic State will receive a morale boost, house prices will face an 18% hit, Britain will face a year-long recession with 500,000 job losses, pensioners could lose up to £32,000, mortgages will rise by nearly £1000 per year, Britain will face a sterling crisis, the Northern Ireland peace process will be thrown into doubt, the pensions 'triple lock' will be scrapped, and the government will be forced to introduce an 'emergency budget' calling for a combination of tax increases and massive spending cuts.

This is not a prospect that should excite any sitting prime minister. In respecting the will of the people, David Cameron will be consciously choosing to enact all of the above. He will have no choice but to refuse the result as to do otherwise would be completely reckless; potentially the single most irresponsible decision made by a prime minister in British history.

That is, of course, assuming he isn't a liar.