Monday 27 June 2016

Keep Calm and Carry On?

In the lasts few days our nation has been gripped by an unquenchable madness. Nobody knows what is happening. Pandora's Box has been opened and its contents are being traded away in a fire sale. How has it come to this?

The British public have voted to leave the European Union. This decision, which has already had a disastrous effect on the economy, was made by an older, wealthier generation of voters who haven't got very long left to live, in direct contradiction with the will of their relatively penniless children and grandchildren, who will have to live with these consequences the longest.

The Prime Minister has resigned, while both the Home Secretary and the Chancellor of the Exchequer were not seen for 72 hours after the result was declared. George Osborne finally reared his head on Monday morning to make a reassuring statement before the markets opened, only for the markets to subsequently crash as investors panicked even further.

The pound has fallen to its lowest value against the dollar in 35 years. Approximately $2.08 trillion was wiped from the global markets in one day. Credit agency Moody's downgraded the UK's outlook from "stable" to "negative" while S&P said the UK would likely lose its AAA rating. So far on Monday, at the time of writing, the FTSE 100 has fallen by 2% and FTSE 250 has fallen by 4.5%.

David Cameron, who stepped down after leading a campaign he had hoped to narrowly win, will most likely be replaced with Boris Johnson, the former Mayor of London and the Prime Minister's old Etonian schoolmate, who led an opposition campaign he had hoped to narrowly lose, and who is subsequently trying to run the country from his newspaper column.

Boris Johnson, who won his campaign and signalled Britain's intent to leave the European Union, is having second thoughts over triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, presuming he becomes the next Prime Minister, while those who comprise the EU establishment want us to get out as soon as possible. Number 10 has announced the unit to lead Brexit issues will be led by Oliver Letwin, whose 'Controversies' section is as long as the 'Political Career' section of his Wikipedia page.

On what comes next, those leading the campaign have no Brexit plan, as they were never in a position to fulfil any pledges they made. The ruling Conservative party has no Brexit plan, as they were expecting those in Number 10 to have drafted any contingency. And Number 10 has no Brexit plan, as David Cameron was not expecting to lose what ultimately proved to be his last political gamble after he had won all of his previous ones.
In the first meeting of his cabinet since the result was declared, the Pm told his colleagues "this government will not accept intolerance" in light of a sharp rise in the number of xenophobic and racially-motivated hate crimes across the country.

Meanwhile, a coup has been triggered within the Labour party. Its leader Jeremy Corbyn, who does not hold the confidence of his MPs, may yet retain the confidence of the party membership. While the shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Ben was sacked over the phone for expressing his lack of confidence in the leader and triggering said coup in the early hours of Sunday morning, the deputy party leader Tom Watson, it emerged, was on a bender in Glastonbury; a detail we have only gleaned from his latest Snapchat story. Corbyn allies accused would-be plotters of planning this ongoing coup on a "Snapchat group".

The new shadow defence secretary Clive Lewis was also at Glastonbury when he was appointed to his new role, and may be late for his first Defence Questions in parliament due to the traffic. His predecessor Maria Eagle resigned in a wave of mass resignations from the shadow cabinet, a walkout which yet continues, not to mention the dozens of MPs and party figures who are resigning from non-cabinet and relatively junior positions. The list of 37 resignations as of 2:00pm BST includes 18 shadow cabinet members, ten shadow ministers, and nine private parliamentary secretaries.

Jeremy Corbyn has refused to step down, and may yet be entitled to continue until a leadership challenge is triggered. But because the party rarely topples its own leaders in such a regicidal fashion, the exact rules as to whether Corbyn may have to regain 35 nominations to appear on the ballot paper are unclear, and may have to be determined by the National Executive Committee, of which Corbyn has a slight majority. There are also rumours that the majority of the PLP will follow a 'Libya model' of sorts and form a second shadow cabinet within the party led by an unofficial leader. One may feel this all needs to be sorted out before Prime Minister's Questions, which will take place on Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile our actual head of state, a woman 25 years past the retirement age, is constitutionally bound to keep shtum in times of political division by merit of a constitution we have yet to write down. She is taking a trip to Northern Ireland on Monday - a nation which may leave the UK along with Scotland in order to continue EU membership, which itself may not be possible.

Given this is only day four of Brexit Britain, what else could possibly go wrong?

***

In other news: International tensions have cooled as it has emerged Israel and Turkey struck a deal to end the six-year rift over the Gaza flotilla killings, while Iraq has taken back control of Fallujah from Islamic State in a massive blow to the terrorist group's ambitions.

Wednesday 22 June 2016

EU Referendum: The Brexit Blame Game - Who Will Take The Rap For A Leave Vote?

During Jeremy Corbyn's Sky News Q&A on Monday, arguably among his stronger performances since becoming Labour leader, audience members challenged him on immigration, the refugee crisis, and his 'damascene conversion'.

The most interesting question, however, came from Sky News' political editor Faisal Islam. He asked the Labour leader whether he would "take the blame" for Brexit. The speculative question rather stood out from the substantive issues being discussed, but hinted at a potential post-Brexit media narrative.

Of course, whatever happens on Thursday, it will have been by the will of the British people. Using the term 'fault' or 'blame' implies the people will have made the wrong choice. The fault, if any, will collectively be all of ours. That is how democracy works, after all.

But the 'status quo' option is undoubtedly favoured by whatever it is you may term the 'establishment'. Groups including the government, the majority of business, the majority of economists, the majority of trade unions and even all 20 clubs which make up the Barclay's Premier League are in favour of a Remain victory.

As post-Brexit anger and bitterness brews, agents in the media may then begin the process of apportioning blame as a convenient way of bashing their political opponents.

Bearing that in mind, who will be the likely players in this Brexit Blame Game?

***

Jeremy Corbyn

There lives and breathes a rather large faction of Corbyn catastrophicists who fervently believe everything the Labour leader does, says, or even touches turns into a brown, mucky substance. But, on this, they may have a point.

The man who admitted his enthusiasm in this campaign has only been "seven or seven and a half" out of ten, and that he has "no great love for the European Union" has only made a handful of major set-piece speeches, and has allegedly done little to convince undecided and demotivated Labour supporters to turn out.

Notwithstanding the danger of emulating The Boy Who Cried Wolf, Corbyn's lacklustre role in this campaign will almost certainly attract scorn from many - particularly in the Labour Party - who will feel his heart wasn't in it, and that he didn't do enough.

Alan Johnson

Hopes were high for the Labour grandee and perpetual party leader-in-waiting, who took the reigns of the Labour In for Britain campaign in December. But over the course of the official referendum campaign his presence has been almost non-existent.

When researchers measured the frequency of media appearances during a four week period between May to June, the alleged leader of the Labour campaign was ranked 18th overall, with 14 appearances in what has been a very Conservative-dominated sphere.

But even from all the Labour figures in the top 20, Johnson was ranked 5th. He fell behind Harriet Harman (14th with 17 appearances), Gordon Brown (13th with 18 appearances), Gisela Stuart (11th with 20 appearances), and Jeremy Corbyn (7th with 52 appearances).

Labour Voters

Will Labour voters be motivated to turn out? It is a question many have been asking during this campaign. Generally, Labour voters are fairly united; only split 75/25 in favour of Remain while, for reference, Conservative voters are split 56/44 in favour of Leave.

But, come Friday, the 'lazy Labour' trope may resurface. One theory floating around is that the overwhelming Tory domination in the media, and the failure of the Labour party to make its position clear, will lead to a low Labour turnout, and a Leave victory. 

Young People 

Younger voters have gained a notorious reputation for developing a stubborn political apathy; with only 43% of 18-24 year-olds turning out to vote in the 2015 General Election compared with 78% of those aged 65+.

Meanwhile, data that has emerged during the referendum campaign shows that 18-24 year-olds are overwhelmingly in favour of remaining (69%), and voters aged 65+ are overwhelmingly in favour of leaving (62%). If the turnout by age group mirrors that from last year, which is incredibly likely, withdrawal from the EU could well be pinned on young people's apathy.

The Political Class

The Mayor of London only this week described the tone of the EU debate as "poisonous". In fact, I've written previously about how politicians are failing to cut through with the public and engage in this campaign.

Also read:

A combination of hysterical economic claims based on dubious models, scaremongering about immigration, and personal in-fighting between party colleagues may lead to a climate that ultimately turns off members of the public and leads to a low turnout.

When asked who they trusted the least, people under the age of 30 answered "politicians" with a net -66 rating, while a recent survey of both Remain and Leave voters showed a general disdain for the opinion of "experts".

It could well be the case that after this referendum, our MPs, who overwhelmingly back Britain's continued membership of the EU by 459 to 150, use their summer break to take a long, hard at themselves in the mirror, and think about what they've done. Unlikely, yes, but stranger things than MPs taking responsibility have happened.

David Cameron 

The Prime Minister may ultimately have to resign in the event of a Brexit, and his opponents within Labour and the Conservative Party will be spoilt for choice if they wish to pin it on his back.

For example, the widely-accepted view is that he bungled his months'-long EU renegotiation, failing to return with the sufficient changes to convince his Eurosceptic back-benchers and undecided voters across the UK to follow his lead in this campaign.

There are smaller factors too, such as the government's voter registration reform which disproportionately disenfranchised young, and overwhelmingly more pro-European voters, as well as his staunch resistance to widening the voting age to 16- and 17-year-olds.

Blame may also arise, of course, from his decision to hold this referendum in the first place.

Sunday 19 June 2016

EU Referendum: David Cameron Has No Choice But To Reject Any Leave Vote

Assuming Britain votes to leave the European Union on June 23, the Prime Minister will be faced with a one of history's most gruelling dilemmas. 

Does he accept the will of the British people and take Britain out of Europe against all his instincts, or will he disregard the democratic mandate put before him, and save his country?

You would be forgiven for assuming the result - whether Remain or Leave - would be legally binding. But it isn't. In some form or another, the government will have to take the final decision as there is nothing in the legislation which says the result must be respected.

David Allen Green has written a good explainer on these legal complexities for the Financial Times. He writes:
What happens next in the event of a vote to leave is therefore a matter of politics not law. It will come down to what is politically expedient and practicable. The UK government could seek to ignore such a vote; to explain it away and characterise it in terms that it has no credibility or binding effect (low turnout may be such an excuse). Or they could say it is now a matter for parliament, and then endeavour to win the parliamentary vote. Or ministers could try to re-negotiate another deal and put that to another referendum. There is, after all, a tradition of EU member states repeating referendums on EU-related matters until voters eventually vote the “right” way.
In summary, the result of the referendum is not obligatory. What matters is whether - and when - the government invokes Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. This referendum is more of a glorified opinion poll than an out-and-out instruction.

***

Which brings us back to David Cameron's dilemma: accept the will of the British people and plunge this country, as he sees it, into economic, social and political chaos, or risk his own reputation and legacy to save it.

Also read:
Assuming the Prime Minister and his government have been completely honest and straightforward with the public throughout this campaign, we now know that in the event Britain withdraws from the European Union the migrant camps based in Calais will move to Kent, the NHS will be starved of funding, households up and down the country will lose £4300 per yearEurope could be plunged into another World War, Islamic State will receive a morale boosthouse prices will face an 18% hit, Britain will face a year-long recession with 500,000 job losses, pensioners could lose up to £32,000mortgages will rise by nearly £1000 per year, Britain will face a sterling crisis, the Northern Ireland peace process will be thrown into doubt, the pensions 'triple lock' will be scrapped, and the government will be forced to introduce an 'emergency budget' calling for a combination of tax increases and massive spending cuts.

This is not a prospect that should excite any sitting prime minister. In respecting the will of the people, David Cameron will be consciously choosing to enact all of the above. He will have no choice but to refuse the result as to do otherwise would be completely reckless; potentially the single most irresponsible decision made by a prime minister in British history.

That is, of course, assuming he isn't a liar.

Does Thomas Mair Have Legitimate Concerns?

When asked for his name, the 52-year-old suspect in the assassination of Labour MP Jo Cox said "death to traitors, freedom for Britain."

Disclaimer: Criminal proceedings are ongoing, so any scope for commenting on the defendant specifically is narrow. Read David Banks' guide to contempt of court - relevant to Twitter users, journalists and bloggers alike.

The discourse surrounding the horrific sequence of events has seen a public outpouring of grief. But also brewing has been a sinister counter-narrative pushed by a small faction of right-wing pundits entirely preoccupied with the upcoming referendum.

Also read: 

This apologism for right-wing extremism is a bizarre and sad phenomenon. There is a legitimate case for Leave, as there is a legitimate case for Remain. Although it is impossible to detach what has happened from the context and timing of the ongoing campaigns, I (and most others) do not see Jo Cox's death as being directly connected with the EU debate.

***

Nevertheless, tarnished by victimhood, this small group of zealots have been clambering over one another to spin this tragedy to suit their own political agenda.
    Spearheaded by Louise Mensch and flanked by the likes of Julia Hartley-Brewer and James Delingpole, and aided by certain tabloid newspapers, this particular band of Brexiteers have continued to deny fiercely the attack had anything to do with right-wing extremism, and have simultaneously tried to tie it with mental health.

    Why mental health? It is an effective way of deflecting the scope for a political motive by in-part absolving personal responsibility.

    James Delingpole, for example, in his utterly paranoid piece 'Project Grief: Remain's Dirty Politicking Has Hit an All-Time Low', almost preemptively accused the Remain campaign of exploiting the tragedy for political gain.

    He wrote: "Are we seriously being expected to believe that this act of violence by a deranged loner represents a statement on the political climate of Britain of which we should all take note?

    "Are we supposed to take it as evidence of some kind of "far-right" terror campaign, of which this strange sad bloke with the white baseball cap, the red gardening gloves, the camo jacket and the remote stare is but the first of many agents?

    "If you actually believe this then I'd say you're not much less deranged and paranoid than Thomas Mair himself."

    What about Hartley-Brewer, who declared Delingpole's article is a 'must-read'? She says that "genuinely, with [her] hand on [her] heart" that any toxicity that may now exist "came from the official Remain campaign," namely for "its scaremongering lies" and for "telling half the country they're ignorant racists".

    Louise Mensch, meanwhile, who only one year ago used her column in the Sun to bully and denigrate a student protesting mental health cuts, has now outed herself as a champion in the fight against the chronic lack of mental health provision in local communities.

    In her terribly-judged and prematurely-written 'Justice First! Jo Cox's Mentally Ill Killer Should Not Be Discussed in Parliament' Mensch wrote that by speaking against "hate" the Prime Minister and Jeremy Corbyn "both imputed political motives to Thomas Mair, which could prejudice his trial" and slammed West Yorkshire Police for "[leaking] highly prejudicial crap to the Guardian about far-right memorabilia."

    As if that wasn't enough, what began on Saturday morning as a crude Twitter-based defence of the "insane" suspect on the grounds that "if insane, nothing else matters" retreated into an angry disdain for anybody who dared mention the court appearance, let alone the suspect's widely-reported ties with far-right groups, as soon as she was alerted to the existing contempt laws that she herself had already vociferously breached.

    ***

    In Saturday's court hearing  it emerged Thomas Mair claimed to be a "political activist" during his arrest, and was alleged to have shouted a variation of "Britain first", "Keep Britain independent", "Britain always comes first", and "This is for Britain" as he launched his attack. But does he have legitimate concerns?

    In the hours that followed the murder, while details such as those above yet lingered in the realm of speculation, many out there, including those I've named above, channelled their efforts into deflecting any hint of a political connection. This continued even after the police released a statement confirming the suspect's ties with right-wing extremism was a "priority line of inquiry".

    Incidentally, this is the same group of people who insist communities out there have "legitimate concerns" about social cohesion, which is itself perfectly valid, yet flatly refuse to acknowledge the scope for right-wing extremism to have entered the mainstream in the face of all the established facts.

    Incidentally, this is the same group of people who insist "it isn't racist to talk about immigration," which is itself perfectly valid, yet retreat into the background, or even double-down, when Nigel Farage takes a sledgehammer to the conversational door we've opened by invoking images reminiscent of fascist propaganda from the 1930s to promote their shared cause.
    My initial reaction to this news was one of shock; the feeling that "this sort of thing doesn't happen in Britain". I was wrong. Britain has changed without us even realising. And it hasn't been overnight.

    As the writer and commentator Alex Andreou wrote in his column: "In my twenty-six years in this country, I have never felt more foreign, less welcome, more marginalised, or less safe. I am not alone. Hundreds of migrants I speak to feel this way.

    "I spend every minute of every day trying to justify my existence, against a wall of blind hatred. It is that hatred that killed Jo Cox. And we all must look into our conscience and answer the question: "Have I contributed"?"

    ***

    Also in the news: It has emerged that Liberty GB's Jack Buckby will stand in the Butley and Spen by-election following the assassination of Labour's Jo Cox. As we learn that all other parties have declined to contest the seat out of respect for the late MP, this serves on both a symbolic and physical reminder that the fight against fascism and far-right extremism is no longer just the stuff of history books, but a very real, very present danger to us all.

    Friday 17 June 2016

    Media Spotlight - The Assassination of Labour MP Jo Cox

    The moving statement by Brendan Cox in the light of his wife's recent death was heart-wrenching in nature and among the most difficult to listen to. It is unimaginable how difficult it must have been to write.

    Politicians, journalists and commentators in Britain and across the world have contributed pieces of writing as the public and law enforcement try to piece together what happened, and why. These pieces are furious, emotional, poignant, and reflective; wide-ranging in tone and purpose, but together help us shape an understanding of the incomprehensibly horrific, or at least try to.

    ***

    Gordon Brown, the Guardian: Jo Cox's legacy should be to end the downward spiral in our politics
    It took her a large part of her 20s, she said, to recover from Cambridge, but that experience tested her, and then strengthened her, and made her the amazing person we came to know. She was nevver to be afraid again, and her ambition was not to join the establishment but to change it - and to change it for people far less fortunate than herself.

    Alex Massie, Spectator: A day of infamy [original, unedited]
    Sometimes rhetoric has consequences. If you spend days, weeks, months, years telling people they are under threat, that their country has been stolen from them, that they have been betrayed and sold down the river, that their birthright has been pilfered, that their problem is they're too slow to realise any of this is happening, that their problem is they're not sufficiently mad as hell, then at some point, in some place, something or someone is going to snap. And then something terrible is going to happen.

    James O'Brien, LBC: We want our country back from whom?
    Convince me if you can, that political debate in Britain in the last couple of years has not created an environment in which we find it easy to believe... or possible to believe that this sort of violence, that this sort of terrorism could unfold on our streets

    Jonathon Freedland, the Guardian: If you inject enough poison into the political bloodstream, somebody will get sick
    What we do know is that this campaign has torn away at a fabric that took years to weave, one that ensured we could argue with each other without challenging the basic legitimacy of our opponents, one that had grown to accept diversity as a strength rather than a threat to be feared, one that allowed us to keep calm and civil even when we disagreed passionately. 

    Polly Toynbee, the Guardian: The mood is ugly, and an MP is dead
    This attack on a public official cannot be viewed in isolation. It occurs against a backdrop of ugly public mood in which we have been told to despise the political class, to distrust those who serve, to dehumanise those with whom we do not readily identify.

    Michael Deacon, the Telegraph: Jo Cox was brave. So are most MPs. Let's show them more respect
    To be an MP is brave. No matter how hard you work, no matter how much you try to help, you're going to be distrusted. You're going to be abused. You're going to be hated. Not by people who know you, but by people who don't.

    Adam Bienkov, politics.co.uk, Jo Cox's killer is responsible for their actions. Others are responsible for theirs
    We all have choices in life. Jo Cox chose to live her life standing up for vulnerable people fleeing from dangerous parts of the world, both as a charity worker and then as an MP. She was responsible for that choice. She will be remembered for that choice. Others took different choices. Ukip leader Nigel Farage chose to spend his life exploiting fears about vulnerable people fleeing from dangerous parts of the world.

    Emran Miann, Facebook post: I wrote this raw and unloved thing about the killing of Jo Cox
    I thought of it on Thursday morning when I saw Nigel Farage standing in front of that Breaking Point poster. I'll be honest: for a brief moment I imagined someone being violent towards him. Then I shuddered and reflected: what's happening to us, or more specifically what's happening to me. Later in the day a politician was shot - and killed.

    Rupert Myers, self-published: Unity
    One lesson of Charlie Hebdo was that the pen is mightier than the assault rifle. Violence cannot kill free speech. One lesson of Jo Cox's death must be to try to understand the circularity of the relationship between the exercise of our free speech and violence. "Britain first" is no less significant than exclamations of religious conviction: dangerous rhetoric and poisonous ideology legitimise and encourage violence.  
    *** 

    I have pasted Brendan Cox's moving statement below in full:
    Today is the beginning of a new chapter in our lives. More difficult, more painful, less joyful, less full of love. I and Jo's friends and family are going to work every moment of our lives to love and nurture our kids and to fight against the hate that killed Jo. Jo believed in a better world and she fought for it every day of her life with an energy, and a zest for life that would exhaust most people. 
    She would have wanted two things above all else to happen now, one that our precious children are bathed in love and two, that we all unite to fight against the hatred that killed her. Hate doesn't have a creed, race or religion, it is poisonous. Jo would have no regrets about her life, she lived every day of it to the full.

    Monday 6 June 2016

    Project Fear: Every EU Referendum Scare Story in One Place!

    We should be worried. Regardless of which we we vote, Britain faces an almighty cataclysm; that is, at least, according to our elected officials.

    Think of the EU referendum campaign as being in a state of limbo, or purgatory, from which we will emerge on June 24 into either one form of hellish existence, or into a completely different form of hellish existence.

    Below is a list of the most prominent scare stories from the referendum campaign - put forward by both the Remain and Leave side - because, well, you should fully know what you're getting into before you cast your ballot.

    Don't say you haven't been warned.

    ***
    IF WE LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION...

    Britain will become a little country "like Guernsey"
    Emmanuel Macron | 18 June

    Incomes would be permanently lower
    IMF | 18 June

    The Government would have to introduce an emergency budget with income tax increases and/or massive spending cuts
    George Osborne | 14 June 

    It could begin the process of the destruction of Western political civilisation
    Donald Tusk | 13 June

    The pensions 'triple lock' will be scrapped
    David Cameron | 12 June

    Air pollution in the UK would worsen
    IEMA | 10 June

    Britain would have no access to the single market 
    Wolfgang Shauble | 10 June

    A Eurosceptic Tory government would make 2.8% cuts, raise VAT to 22%
    Labour In | 10 June

    The Northern Ireland peace settlement would be thrown into doubt
    John Major and Tony Blair | 09 June 

    Poor families will lose as much as £5,542 in tax credits per year
    NIESR | 09 June

    British business competitivenesss will suffer
    Roberto Azvedo | 07 June

    It would lead to a sterling crisis
    David Cameron | 06 June 

    The threat of a terrorist attack will increase
    Various former police chiefs | 06 June

    Mortgages will rise by nearly £1000 a year
    David Cameron | 05 June 

    We could lose thousands of jobs in the financial sector
    Jamie Dimon | 03 June

    Scotland could become independent within two years
    Alex Salmond | 26 May

    Pensioners could lose £32,000
    George Osborne | 26 May 

    Britain will face a year-long recession with 500,000 job losses
    George Osborne | 23 May

    The NHS will be fundamentally damaged
    Sir Simon Stevens | 22 May

    House prices face an 18% hit
    George Osborne | 21 May

    We might make ISIS happy
    David Cameron | 17 May 

    The scale of an imminent recession could be 'pretty bad to very, very bad'
    Christine Lagarde | 13 May

    It would undermine Britain's national security
    Baroness Eliza Manningham-Buller | 11 May

    Europe could be plunged into another World War
    David Cameron | 09 May

    Over 100,000 couples could break up
    Sian Berry | 25 April

    We will be put at 'the back of the queue' for US-UK trade talks
    Barrack Obama | 22 April

    British households would lose £4300 per year
    George Osborne | 18 April

    More than 400 top-flight footballers could be deported
    Various footballing figures / Karen Brady | 31 March 

    The NHS will be starved of funding
    Jeremy Hunt | 27 March

    Britain could lose up to 950,000 jobs
    Confederation of British Industry | 21 March

    Spain would invade Gibraltar 'the very next day'
    Manuel Garcia-Margallo | 07 March

    The cost of flights would skyrocket and tourist safety would be at risk 
    Dame Carolyn McCall | 14 February

    Calais 'migrant camps' will move to Kent
    David Cameron | 08 February 


    ***
    IF WE REMAIN IN THE EUROPEAN UNION...

    Britain would be open to an Orlando-style terrorist attack

    LEAVE.EU | 13 June

    Turkey will be given VISA-free access to the UK; fast-tracked into the EU (£)
    Anonymous diplomat | 12 June

    Europe will 'drag us into poverty'
    Jim Mellon | 07 June

    The EU will abolish the monarchy
    Ukip | 06 June

    Britain will have to pay an extra £2.4bn per year
    Boris Johnson | 06 June 

    Women face an increased risk of sexual assault by foreign men
    Nigel Farage | 04 June

    We risk letting people like these 50 'most dangerous' European criminals
    Vote Leave | 28 May

    There will be a European Union army 
    Various | 27 May

    The NHS will be fundamentally damaged
    Lord David Owen | 22 May

    Thousands of criminals from Turkey, Serbia, Albania, Montenegro and Macedonia could arrive in Britain
    Penny Mordaunt | 22 May

    Up to 12 million Turks say they'll come to the UK
    Daily Express | 22 May

    We could add up to 5.23m to the UK population
    Michael Gove | 20 May

    Bananas can't be sold in bunches of more than two or three
    Boris Johnson | 17 May

    The EU will realise Hitler's ambitions and morph into a superstate
    Boris Johnson | 15 May

    Young People will be forced out of London
    Iain Duncan Smith | 10 May

    Millions of Turks will be given free movement rights
    Ian Duncan Smith | 10 May

    The status of the UK's financial sector could be eroded
    Jon Moulton | 29 April

    ISIS sleeper agents will exploit open borders to plot attacks in Britain
    James Clapper | 27 April

    The 'ticking time bomb' will explode, taxes will rise by 18% across the Eurozone
    Gisela Stuart | 13 April

    Terror suspects will be able to 'waltz into Britain'
    Dominc Raab | 30 March

    Gypsy gangsters will siphon away millions of pounds in benefits
    The Sun | 29 March

    Europe will tax your Easter Eggs
    Robert Oxley | 28 March

    It would undermine Britain's national security
    Sir Richard Dearlove | 23 March 

    Europe will seize control of British coastguard services
    Daily Express | 07 March

    Britain risks suffering a 'Paris-style terror attack'
    Iain Duncan Smith | 21 February


    ***

    I'll be updating this list over the next few weeks as we approach the referendum date. Anything I've missed? Just tweet me

    Still stuck on which way to vote? Just pick the list of risks, warnings and imminent nightmares that seems the most terrifying, and go with the other option. Now what's so difficult to understand about that?

    Sunday 5 June 2016

    Media Spotlight - Jeremy Corbyn: the Outsider

    For all their differences, Jeremy Corbyn and the British press have something in common; an unforgiving contempt for each another.

    Last week VICE released a fly-on-the-wall film documenting the inner-workings of the Labour leader's operation, and the reviews were mixed; not for the quality of the documentary (nobody particularly cared how good the film was) but for how Jeremy Corbyn presented himself.

    In light of the fascinating relationship between Corbyn and the media, I figured that instead of reviewing it myself it would be more appropriate to collate what his biggest fans - those inside, and camping on the fringes of, the Westminster bubble - made of it.

    ***
    Will Self, Vice: 'Bathetic and pathetic': Corbyn's normcore shtick is utterly ineffectual
    What I mostly felt watching the documentary was anger − an anger which, as bathetic and pathetic scenes alternated, muted into annoyance, before finally curdling to become mere... pity, which is hardly a vote-winner.

    Gaby Hinsliff, the Guardian: The media don't hate Jeremy Corbyn. It's more complicated than that 
    Having been a lobby reporter for 12 years, followed by observing Westminster from a safer distance for the past six, I do think bias is part of the answer. But not the bias you think. Journalists are not out to destroy Corbyn because he threatens to bring down the neoliberal elite, or because they’re all Tories, or because they live in a bubble of groupthink.

    Iain Martin, CapX: Corbyn is getting worse. The man is a total twit
    If you think personal abuse is uncalled for then please don’t read on. Personally, I want there to be a proper opposition. I think the leader of the opposition should be a serious person. Prime Minister is still a pretty important job. People putting themselves up for the post had better be good. That Corbyn is so useless but persists is an act of supreme selfishness and self-indulgence. He deserves everything that is coming to him from the electorate.

    Matt Chorley, the Times (£): Corbyn cameras capture a new David Brent. Fact!
    The beard, the self-delusion, the pseudo-proverbs used to convey great insight. Jeremy Corbyn is the David Brent of our day... Seems easy: invite in a journalist who is a paid-up Labour member from a website from outside the hated “mainstream media” to secure positive coverage. This is no stitch-up. It’s worse than that. Like Ricky Gervais’s spoof, it just holds the camera up to Mr Corbyn and shows viewers what he says and does.

    Peter Edwards, LabourList: Corbyn film underlines risk of letting cameras in to the leader's office
    There was no clear message from the film beyond Corbyn’s hostile attitude towards the BBC and a Guardiancolumnist who wrote about anti-Semitism – but this would not be what you want the public to take away from 30 minutes up close with the Labour leader. It was confirmation, if any were needed, that Corbyn and his staff do not attempt to stage manage his interventions in the microscopic manner that initially proved so successful under New Labour.


    There are some moments of humour worthy of The Thick Of It, provided apparently unintentionally by the interviewees. At one point Corbyn, who is signing photographs at the time, explains that in the autumn he will be signing the fruit from his allotment: "I’m gonna sign the apples. We’ll have signed apples."

    Catherine Bennett, the Guardian: Jeremy Corbyn's male-only retinue will never tell him he has no clothes
    Like Ed Miliband and Gordon Brown before him, he shows a firm preference for a male-dominated team, its mission to sustain the fantasy that the chosen oddball can prevail: a skilled operation that would evidently be jeopardised if any woman were allowed a speaking role. Women’s freedom to sit silently, even to clap, is, however, one of the key respects in which life inside Corbyn’s office can be seen to differ from arrangements on all-male Mount Athos.

    John McTernan, the Telegraph: Why Jeremy Corbyn despises the liberal media even more than the Right
    Luckily for Cameron, Corbyn only brought his trademark tone of sanctimonious petulance to the Chamber. Unluckily for Corbyn, documentary filmmakers from Vice TV were in the room when he told his team that he was going to give the day to Cameron. The brief shot of Seumas Milne’s face shows two thoughts fighting for dominance: "Did he really just say that? Again?" just loses out to "Why did I agree to the camera crew?"

    Tom Peck, the Independent: Why won't they just let me fail on my own?
    Vice’s "fly-on-the-wall" documentary took months to make. Flies are attracted to one thing, and whenever the smell coming off that thing turned so overwhelming as to be unmaskable even by the aggressively perfumed Seumas Milne, Vice was sent packing til the whiff had subsided.
    *** 

    I've embedded the divisive documentary below. It's definitely worth a watch. You can, and should, make up your mind over it.